Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 56378.295139 59718.694443 63065.474644 66667.557029 70432.127716 74247.698020 78404.614173
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 51347.139666 56466.587911 61746.006957 67588.616712 73864.668351 80395.074460 87695.123503
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 47752.982785 54085.202043 60764.186052 68316.188152 76599.867943 85391.468218 95409.278111
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 44776.559953 51993.189740 59750.589583 68680.154290 78645.045461 89393.054237 101831.410702
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 42127.968574 50012.142749 58630.225563 68707.152930 80122.069772 92606.650698 107247.647012
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 40062.495621 48518.442990 57901.523318 69027.141797 81797.984887 95937.388248 112712.164314
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 38107.858665 47018.764931 57045.861998 69089.309115 83082.648106 98749.220570 117531.947140
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 36927.959057 46335.555881 57055.499686 70080.305301 85378.111407 102674.667753 123603.868343
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 35240.596955 44961.990189 56178.030723 69960.735653 86320.329039 104995.368111 127795.271499
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 34376.588895 44520.475423 56354.676470 71044.045007 88643.152221 108903.121481 133832.324474
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 33386.365223 43872.859919 56239.488574 71739.745112 90477.683486 112223.435861 139181.321250
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 32124.350165 42835.388062 55603.692714 71762.816864 91471.319685 114525.926049 143316.458293
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 30791.251021 41674.426805 54791.014676 71554.146378 92182.942812 116507.308281 147106.731959
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 30155.293788 41362.935260 55003.689368 72589.154821 94401.986180 120304.107028 153098.710870
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 29443.002341 40922.292223 55029.171185 73371.364083 96299.324215 123712.485838 158637.346422
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 28593.249717 40270.315233 54759.353124 73759.045326 97691.466814 126499.487339 163427.407944
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 27631.752191 39437.148869 54227.814711 73788.093079 98614.950150 128700.228980 167499.895415
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 26862.966318 38828.351737 53957.765195 74126.930728 99910.776121 131352.463697 172131.976630
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 26018.629243 38089.372298 53493.107080 74192.758198 100843.994736 133546.128081 176198.631274
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 25634.276546 37951.306804 53797.462846 75241.725151 103024.460894 137300.517722 182224.314795
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 24785.452039 37155.868452 53214.437584 75115.171096 103684.560055 139141.382800 185861.005380
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 24491.108201 37106.535469 53608.488109 76261.677235 105983.746597 143055.746308 192121.988253
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 24049.813009 36838.274739 53698.019286 76997.857707 107748.905939 146299.593225 197554.416458